POLITICAL SYSTEMS FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS

SYNEXXUS has extensive experience and capability in the analysis of political systems, with particular in Africa, the Middle East, and East Asia. We have well-developed methods for the collection, aggregation, and assessment of political system data. Our Decision Alignment and Forecasting Network Interactions (DAFNI) model takes this data and forecasts the occurrence of political events and stakeholder response to policy.

DAFNI is a decision-making forecasting approach that combines pioneering mathematical quantitative methods with game theoretic, agent based, and network interaction models to develop strategic and operational level courses of action for program managers, policy makers, regional commanders and other decision makers.

DAFNI employs multiple sets of complex quantitative algorithms that facilitate operational forecasting by giving policy makers a “policy flight simulator” that is able to model intent and anticipate outcome. It provides a setting for policy makers to test the effectiveness of proposed policies and potential courses of action.

Previous Analysis Work for OSD (and AFRICOM) In our recent work with OSD, DAFNI was applied to forecast, anticipate and show the intent of stakeholder organizations and individuals, such as regional coalition groups, national security policy makers and terrorist cells, in five African countries. Data was first collected on the various stakeholders based on the desired forecasting objectives. DAFNI then leveraged the collected data within its quantitative “policy flight simulator” mechanism to forecast the complex interactions of the various stakeholders. The resulting portfolio provided executable policies to support USAFRICOM objectives for regional stability and development that are now being used to help shape the future of the African continent, proactively ensuring prosperity and stability of select nations and regions on the continent, and generating an economic outlet advantageous to its population and beneficial to the global market.

In addition to its current use in supporting political systems analysis, terrorist network analysis and other intelligence analysis, DAFNI’s forecasting and operational planning capabilities have many other potential applications across the public and private sectors.